With the differentiation of the pace of global economic recovery and the deepening of industrial chain reconstruction, the global steel market in the second quarter of 2025 is facing a complex situation with multiple variables intertwined. For foreign trade steel buyers, accurately grasping the price fluctuation trend and formulating flexible procurement strategies have become the key to reducing risks and controlling costs. This article combines the supply and demand fundamentals, regional policies and industry dynamics to analyze the price trend of steel in the second quarter and put forward targeted procurement suggestions.
1. Analysis of global steel price trends in the second quarter of 2025
① Supply and demand pattern: demand differentiation and capacity adjustment in parallel
Demand side: infrastructure investment in emerging markets and the return of European and American manufacturing industries form demand support. The accelerated implementation of infrastructure projects in Southeast Asia and the Middle East has driven the growth of demand for construction steel; while the European and American markets have continued to rise in demand for high-end steel due to green energy transformation (such as steel for wind power and photovoltaic brackets) and the trend of lightweight automobiles.
Supply side: China's crude steel production reduction policy continues, coupled with the expansion of production capacity in India, Russia and other countries, and the global supply structure shows regional differentiation. Environmental protection production restrictions and carbon tariff policies (such as EU CBAM) may further restrict the export of high-carbon emission steel.
② Significant price differences in regional markets
Asian market: China's weak domestic demand may force steel mills to expand exports, but the risk of anti-dumping investigations (such as Southeast Asia and the European Union) may suppress price increases.
European market: Carbon costs are superimposed on the energy crisis, and the prices of mainstream products such as hot-rolled coils are expected to remain high, but import substitution demand may stimulate the inflow of steel from Turkey and India.
American market: The implementation of the US infrastructure bill has been delayed, and the trend of nearshoring in Mexico has led to regional supply and demand mismatches that may push up North American steel prices.
③ Raw material cost transmission pressure
Iron ore prices fluctuate due to China's demand expectations, while the shortage of scrap steel resources and rising energy prices (such as natural gas) will continue to push up the cost of electric furnace steel, forming a bottom support for steel prices.
2. Steel procurement recommendations for the second quarter of 2025
① Regional procurement strategy
Southeast Asian/Middle Eastern customers: Prioritize locking in Chinese export resources, but pay attention to anti-dumping tax risks. It is recommended to purchase in batches and hedge with short-term futures contracts.
European customers: Consider non-traditional supply sources such as Turkey and India, and use their low-carbon steel certification advantages (such as EU CBAM exemption) to reduce costs.
American customers: Pay attention to nearshore suppliers in Mexico and Canada to shorten delivery cycles and avoid high US steel tariffs on China.
② Product structure optimization
Increase the proportion of high value-added steel (such as automotive plates and weathering steel) procurement, reduce dependence on ordinary carbon steel, to cope with the risk of price wars for low-end products.
Explore green steel certification cooperation and lay out low-carbon entry barriers in markets such as the EU in advance.
③ Application of risk hedging tools
Use LME steel futures or Singapore Exchange (SGX) derivatives to lock in forward prices and avoid geopolitical (such as escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict) or policy shocks.
④ Diversified supply chain layout
Establish a "China + N" supplier system to disperse dependence on a single market; simultaneously develop emerging steel mill resources in Africa, the Middle East and other places to capture low-cost opportunities.
3. Risk Warning and Long-term Outlook
Short-term risks: The pace of the Fed's interest rate hikes and the Red Sea crisis continue to disrupt shipping costs, and we need to pay close attention to the fluctuations of CCFI (China Container Freight Index).
Long-term trend: Global steel trade may transform towards "regionalization + low carbonization", and buyers need to plan green supply chains in advance to adapt to ESG compliance requirements.